What Exactly Happened? A Breakdown Analysis of The 2016 Vote
Tuesday’s victory for Donald Trump was one for the record books, and something most political strategists did not see coming.
So, how did it all “breakdown?”
Some experts weigh in.
Turnout change since 2012 in 100% rpt counties. Blue is higher. Orange is lower.
Big drop in black belt, some northern rural white areas pic.twitter.com/UAtAWZhlRX— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2016
It looks like African American turnout may have been way down. This was probably not factored in to most turnout models.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 9, 2016
We've noticed all along that trump supporters were far more rural the the typical R. Trump outperformed rural even more than we thought +10%
— Matt Oczkowski (@MattOczkowski) November 9, 2016
Implied probabilities of Trump presidency, Brexit pic.twitter.com/ooczcLEV8Z
— Sam Ro (@bySamRo) November 9, 2016
The shift from 2012 : Trump makes huge gains in rural America. Clinton makes modest gains in the metros, Utah pic.twitter.com/5C12ylrlB9
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2016
Clinton suffered her biggest losses in the places where Obama was strongest among white voters. It's not a simple racism story
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2016
I'm not saying it's irrelevant, but this election was decided by people who voted for Obama in 2012, and should figure into the analysis
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2016
We're currently projecting a turnout above 2012 levels (in terms of total vote, dk turnout rate) https://t.co/zQkplBK6SR
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2016
Hillary has now pulled ahead in the popular vote, 59 million to 58.9 million.
What a crazy, odds-defying election. #Election2016 pic.twitter.com/JXl6DMn92o
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
What I just told @CharlieRose: All exit polls should be banned.#ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
Regarding exit polls tonight, Trump voters were either lying or refused to talk to exit pollsters. #ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
Cold this be the DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN of exit polls? #ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
Amy Moreno is a Published Author, Pug Lover & Game of Thrones Nerd. You can follow her on Twitter here and Facebook here.
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